MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ef92f67798e879a37aeef95e9f231760a6f165348e5692c2a2063c6471ba301
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 65c | 9,231$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,231.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 8,973$3,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,140.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 30c | 1,080$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed New York Yankees | 72c | 405.55$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.58 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago White Sox | 31c | 398.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 257.83$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 68c | 175.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Chicago White Sox | 25c | 89.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 68c | 78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 68c | 69.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox | 32c | 68.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Chicago White Sox | 32c | 65.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Yankees | 73c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked New York Yankees | 67c | 61.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed New York Yankees | 68c | 59.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago White Sox | 28c | 45.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed New York Yankees | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed New York Yankees | 68c | 28.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed New York Yankees | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Yankees | 68c | 17.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.