Tennis · resolved market
ITF Roehampton: Lui Maxted vs Mark Ceban
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79592daf4ad28b6b77b456e632ce60f14bfe964f8948d2e510b4711d7be75938
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lui Maxtedof Lui Maxted, Mark Ceban
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Mark Ceban | 16c | 2,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 326 | 37.4%122 W · 204 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Mark Ceban | 43c | 1,408$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.97 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lui Maxted | 69c | 1,057$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.59 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Mark Ceban | 11c | 956.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lui Maxted | 59c | 607.17$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.94 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Lui Maxted | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 251 | 44.6%112 W · 139 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Mark Ceban | 26c | 257.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Lui Maxted | 68c | 166.45$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Mark Ceban | 43c | 122.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Mark Ceban | 34c | 101.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Mark Ceban | 34c | 100.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Mark Ceban | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Mark Ceban | 37c | 97.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Mark Ceban | 37c | 95.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Mark Ceban | 31c | 87.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 350 | 39.4%138 W · 212 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Mark Ceban | 35c | 85.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 391 | 35.8%140 W · 251 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Lui Maxted | 63c | 81.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Lui Maxted | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…5fdebacked Lui Maxted | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 243 | 44%107 W · 136 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Mark Ceban | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Mark Ceban | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Lui Maxted | 76c | 66.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…ee14backed Lui Maxted | 59c | 64.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mark Ceban | 18c | 61.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Mark Ceban | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mark Ceban | 35c | 58.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…fec5backed Lui Maxted | 70c | 56.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Lui Maxted | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mark Ceban | 27c | 46.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Mark Ceban | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Mark Ceban | 36c | 39.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 299 | 45.8%137 W · 162 L | +20.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Mark Ceban | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Lui Maxted | 64c | 31.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Lui Maxted | 61c | 22.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Lui Maxted | 78c | 21.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.