TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Centurion: Edward Winter vs Stefano Napolitano

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Edward Winterof Edward Winter, Stefano Napolitano
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,871
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,623

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,871 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84ad…bfb7backed Edward Winter54c2,405$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1154,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Edward Winter40c2,268$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.881,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Stefano Napolitano66c2,263$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50062061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Stefano Napolitano48c1,566$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.068,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed Stefano Napolitano3c1,503$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5613444%59 W · 75 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Stefano Napolitano58c1,442$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8301,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d3…079fbacked Stefano Napolitano54c1,364$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73548855.9%273 W · 215 L-20.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Edward Winter54c1,243$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.782,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Edward Winter47c1,163$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.541,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Edward Winter37c999.97$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.9885634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Edward Winter35c996.72$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.083,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Edward Winter37c794.43$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Edward Winter37c715.23$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.0757842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Edward Winter57c713.3$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.845,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf35a…ce87backed Stefano Napolitano42c696.89$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.854818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Stefano Napolitano47c638.32$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.248,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Stefano Napolitano55c622.6$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.3299244.7%443 W · 549 L-29.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Stefano Napolitano52c538.95$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.479,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa31a…d023backed Edward Winter45c519.02$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.464456.8%25 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Stefano Napolitano39c513.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20087337.1%324 W · 549 L-3.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Stefano Napolitano64c509.99$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.3958745.7%268 W · 319 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b5…1db6backed Stefano Napolitano68c507.83$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.9328562.8%179 W · 106 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74bd…d371backed Stefano Napolitano33c500.1$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8442125.7%108 W · 313 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Stefano Napolitano63c468.75$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.311,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Edward Winter51c427.12$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.074,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Edward Winter54c416$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.3622667.7%153 W · 73 L+1.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4571…a952backed Stefano Napolitano58c409.22$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.574042.5%17 W · 23 L-7.2wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-37.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Stefano Napolitano62c401.92$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.992,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Stefano Napolitano48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19252341.5%217 W · 306 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Edward Winter47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2124,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d07…b9febacked Stefano Napolitano11c384.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.783208.8%28 W · 292 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed Stefano Napolitano55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20067239.1%263 W · 409 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f9d…c744backed Edward Winter39c353.46$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.8111247.3%53 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Stefano Napolitano63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023159.3%137 W · 94 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Stefano Napolitano32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Stefano Napolitano63c275.35$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.471,12551.1%575 W · 550 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Edward Winter35c272.43$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.035,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Edward Winter37c266.44$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.867,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaa0…a9dfbacked Edward Winter38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Stefano Napolitano48c254.83$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4237645.7%172 W · 204 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Stefano Napolitano64c250$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Stefano Napolitano57c248.55$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6136554.2%198 W · 167 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Stefano Napolitano47c214.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025257.9%146 W · 106 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Stefano Napolitano47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe99e…90ccbacked Stefano Napolitano47c210$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.73154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Edward Winter38c208.58$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3239149.1%192 W · 199 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Edward Winter48c195$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8592138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x561d…4134backed Stefano Napolitano44c179.98$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9944949.4%222 W · 227 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Stefano Napolitano49c179.21$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.916,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Stefano Napolitano51c177.62$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.311,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Edward Winter72c170$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.630857.1%176 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Edward Winter69c159.98$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3378840.6%320 W · 468 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d91…40d3backed Edward Winter32c156.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5948331.1%150 W · 333 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c5…8181backed Stefano Napolitano64c156.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10081256.2%456 W · 356 L-3.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3b08backed Stefano Napolitano66c151.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050958%295 W · 214 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Stefano Napolitano66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030053.7%161 W · 139 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Edward Winter46c148.55$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0785624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Stefano Napolitano48c146.91$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.471,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dee…5d00backed Stefano Napolitano22c139.89$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4616154.7%88 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Edward Winter74c135.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5291880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc369…b1ccbacked Edward Winter37c135.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1339254.1%212 W · 180 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476e…cfb9backed Edward Winter60c134$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.635060.9%213 W · 137 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe99…506bbacked Edward Winter38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5867852.1%353 W · 325 L-2.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Stefano Napolitano48c125.51$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.683047%390 W · 440 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…206cbacked Edward Winter36c121$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3385637.7%323 W · 533 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Edward Winter45c107$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.042,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Edward Winter69c106$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1535187.7%308 W · 43 L+66.4wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+29.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Edward Winter37c105.75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8151644.8%231 W · 285 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Stefano Napolitano66c101.6$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6733352.6%175 W · 158 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Edward Winter27c101$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.732,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Edward Winter37c100.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5921949.3%108 W · 111 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Edward Winter62c97.4$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.43,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Stefano Napolitano50c95.37$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.751339.4%202 W · 311 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcadd…c7e6backed Stefano Napolitano56c93.89$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.834626.1%12 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff8c…142ebacked Edward Winter62c91.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.984979.6%39 W · 10 L+8.9wins+0.18per pick61cpaid+31%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Edward Winter54c91.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.263,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Edward Winter52c88.59$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7696945.9%445 W · 524 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Stefano Napolitano50c84.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8499…950dbacked Stefano Napolitano60c82.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013043.1%56 W · 74 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Stefano Napolitano56c79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.241,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Edward Winter52c78.71$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.795,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Stefano Napolitano35c77.58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.184,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d19…bf25backed Stefano Napolitano61c65.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4064755%356 W · 291 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Edward Winter54c63.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.226,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23df…640abacked Stefano Napolitano66c63.02$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5947857.9%277 W · 201 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Edward Winter69c62.07$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.073,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b35…1dcebacked Edward Winter33c60.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6110554.3%57 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe22f…49b1backed Edward Winter33c60.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.618248.8%40 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Edward Winter37c56.89$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.042,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed Stefano Napolitano63c55.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3588560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Edward Winter48c52.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.541,10256.5%623 W · 479 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Stefano Napolitano59c52.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.052,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Stefano Napolitano64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Edward Winter39c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.71,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3b…d591backed Edward Winter43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.519745.7%90 W · 107 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c74…205cbacked Stefano Napolitano61c47.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.21361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick70cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf1…d8febacked Edward Winter75c47.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d75…26fbbacked Stefano Napolitano63c47.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3016358.9%96 W · 67 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf676…9a00backed Stefano Napolitano63c47.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020158.7%118 W · 83 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a89…df4bbacked Edward Winter36c46.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3014657.5%84 W · 62 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.