Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Baez (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x796253c1324817892d8c46620ce4ea4f4154ea20c1f4ff34443cde8a335e5732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Medvedev, Baez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,818 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Medvedev | 65c | 2,811$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.73 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Medvedev | 63c | 2,340$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.94 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Baez | 35c | 2,311$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.85 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Baez | 37c | 1,551$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.95 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Baez | 36c | 992.88$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.34 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Baez | 37c | 869.57$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.16 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78b…d26dbacked Medvedev | 67c | 644.92$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Medvedev | 64c | 550$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Baez | 36c | 472.65$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.26 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Medvedev | 64c | 393.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.43 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Baez | 35c | 365.37$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.88 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Baez | 39c | 320.51$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 245 | 60%147 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Medvedev | 64c | 310.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Medvedev | 65c | 240.12$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 432 | 42.4%183 W · 249 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Baez | 33c | 189.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 131 | 35.9%47 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Medvedev | 64c | 189.23$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Medvedev | 62c | 145.89$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Medvedev | 65c | 144$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Medvedev | 50c | 135.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Baez | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Baez | 39c | 123.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…e86dbacked Medvedev | 67c | 120.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 526 | 61.2%322 W · 204 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Baez | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Baez | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Baez | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Medvedev | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Baez | 43c | 73.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Medvedev | 61c | 61.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…fa17backed Medvedev | 65c | 52.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 150 | 70%105 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Baez | 37c | 50.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Baez | 35c | 42.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Medvedev | 63c | 38.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Medvedev | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 308 | 60.1%185 W · 123 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Baez | 34c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…d7f4backed Medvedev | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Baez | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaed…8479backed Baez | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Baez (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian BaezDaniil Medvedev won
- Medvedev vs. Baez: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Baez: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs BaezMedvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.