Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Baez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aa62b1661e8565fc58cc0247f878578c8c730e476c4f589e931c0e1b984731f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Daniil Medvedevof Daniil Medvedev, Sebastian Baez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,611 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x960c…4a4ebacked Sebastian Baez | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Sebastian Baez | 7c | 14,739$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.34 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Sebastian Baez | 2c | 7,795$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.05 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Sebastian Baez | 8c | 7,191$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.11 | 119 | 19.3%23 W · 96 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Sebastian Baez | 10c | 6,691$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.23 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Sebastian Baez | 11c | 6,435$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…df72backed Sebastian Baez | 16c | 6,252$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Sebastian Baez | 15c | 4,823$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.41 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Sebastian Baez | 15c | 4,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…78fdbacked Sebastian Baez | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aee…fad4backed Sebastian Baez | 7c | 2,997$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Sebastian Baez | 11c | 1,992$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.81 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Sebastian Baez | 16c | 1,943$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.95 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Sebastian Baez | 1c | 1,531$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Sebastian Baez | 15c | 1,246$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.88 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Sebastian Baez | 16c | 1,131$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.88 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Sebastian Baez | 18c | 1,100$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…84c1backed Sebastian Baez | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…6af2backed Sebastian Baez | 16c | 943.75$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 128 | 35.2%45 W · 83 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Sebastian Baez | 11c | 920.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 378 | 54%204 W · 174 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eff…db12backed Sebastian Baez | 15c | 838.58$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sebastian Baez | 14c | 819.15$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Sebastian Baez | 15c | 772$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked Sebastian Baez | 16c | 762.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 519 | 33.1%172 W · 347 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…3de2backed Sebastian Baez | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…434ebacked Sebastian Baez | 15c | 722.25$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474f…9650backed Sebastian Baez | 16c | 659.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…9f40backed Sebastian Baez | 19c | 555.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…ba33backed Sebastian Baez | 11c | 527.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…2b3abacked Sebastian Baez | 19c | 526.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 503 | 64.6%325 W · 178 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Sebastian Baez | 16c | 495$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Sebastian Baez | 13c | 466.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…f010backed Sebastian Baez | 20c | 454$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Sebastian Baez | 13c | 400.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Sebastian Baez | 21c | 387.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Sebastian Baez | 7c | 297.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Sebastian Baez | 16c | 258$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Sebastian Baez | 16c | 225$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Sebastian Baez | 16c | 217.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…8d9bbacked Sebastian Baez | 21c | 201.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 319 | 41.4%132 W · 187 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Sebastian Baez | 14c | 197.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 439 | 51.9%228 W · 211 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Sebastian Baez | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Sebastian Baez | 15c | 178.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 181 | 33.1%60 W · 121 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Sebastian Baez | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Sebastian Baez | 18c | 145.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…4d8bbacked Sebastian Baez | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 182 | 33.5%61 W · 121 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…56ecbacked Sebastian Baez | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…e0c5backed Sebastian Baez | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Daniil Medvedev | 78c | 106.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Sebastian Baez | 20c | 105.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…6e84backed Sebastian Baez | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Sebastian Baez | 15c | 96.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Sebastian Baez | 15c | 94.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Sebastian Baez | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 725 | 42.6%309 W · 416 L | -20.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38df…4609backed Sebastian Baez | 15c | 90.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Sebastian Baez | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 333 | 26.4%88 W · 245 L | -14.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e53…f0dbbacked Sebastian Baez | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sebastian Baez | 14c | 79.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Sebastian Baez | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Daniil Medvedev | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Daniil Medvedev | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 126 | 64.3%81 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Baezthis page
- Medvedev vs. Baez: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Baez: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs BaezMedvedev won
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Baez (+1.5)Medvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.