South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7977fa0cb5c60d474aa8df9ead525cdda1145bf1e6d3083fcd0b9246b4e24166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Club Cerro Porteñoof SE Palmeiras, Club Cerro Porteño
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8228…b2fbbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 53c | 1,075$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.47 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed SE Palmeiras | 47c | 850.96$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.95 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…cff4backed Club Cerro Porteño | 54c | 814.81$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.81 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Club Cerro Porteño | 53c | 579.87$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.54 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed SE Palmeiras | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…8d7abacked SE Palmeiras | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Club Cerro Porteño | 53c | 326$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.95 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed SE Palmeiras | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed SE Palmeiras | 47c | 95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed SE Palmeiras | 47c | 74.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked SE Palmeiras | 48c | 73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…982dbacked SE Palmeiras | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b81…e7a6backed SE Palmeiras | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d5…41b8backed SE Palmeiras | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Club Cerro Porteño | 52c | 46.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 51c | 39.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked SE Palmeiras | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked SE Palmeiras | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked SE Palmeiras | 35c | 28.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…46babacked Club Cerro Porteño | 53c | 28.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Club Cerro Porteño | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 54c | 19.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 1.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 2.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Club Cerro Porteño (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.