South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f5895043523a6ba68a1ef54a91d8a0168953eefbbcf39fdcd427aa01fd58870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 10,653$6,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,271.15 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 22c | 4,003$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Over | 54c | 3,700$1,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 2,967$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.29 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 36c | 2,729$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 34c | 1,172$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.83 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 50c | 1,067$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.34 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…212dbacked Over | 57c | 926.32$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 72c | 920$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.4 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 68c | 843.63$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.44 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…cfefbacked Over | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 586.81$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.25 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…6f39backed Over | 17c | 463.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 270.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.54 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…cba6backed Over | 43c | 232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Over | 39c | 220.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 117 | 17.9%21 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Over | 38c | 189.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…19aabacked Over | 58c | 180$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 30c | 151.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 31c | 137.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.43 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 69c | 135.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 17c | 117.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked Over | 35c | 110.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 37c | 106.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Over | 62c | 99.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…f939backed Over | 73c | 82.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 59c | 75.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 27c | 74.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…522fbacked Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 39c | 44.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Over | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 57c | 38.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 36c | 35.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Under | 33c | 34.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ab…93c6backed Over | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d62…49c5backed Over | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…4fb2backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 46c | 26.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a25…738cbacked Over | 43c | 25.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 57c | 22.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…9b6cbacked Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…08a2backed Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 66cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a94…b335backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked Under | 58c | 19.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ca…5ed4backed Over | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 1.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 2.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Club Cerro Porteño (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.