South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3428ea8ca913f226eabb76f7f5c5349783137aef5d8f119fc71beeac5ba0268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 25c | 4,687$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 49c | 3,354$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.32 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2444…4252backed Under | 51c | 3,339$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 3,055$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.95 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 36c | 3,021$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 2,991$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.52 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 2,764$1,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.25 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 49c | 2,561$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.95 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…abcebacked Under | 51c | 2,314$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.73 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 36c | 1,991$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.46 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Under | 50c | 1,893$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.47 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 53c | 1,735$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.55 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 48c | 1,621$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.08 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Under | 50c | 1,550$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 1,352$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.26 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Under | 50c | 1,326$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.82 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 50c | 923.41$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.71 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 49c | 919.99$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.8 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 23c | 653$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.19 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 50c | 605.64$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.26 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 50c | 598.88$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.44 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 555.42$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.33 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 51c | 520$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.8 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 52c | 514.81$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.52 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…500bbacked Under | 67c | 507.46$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.46 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 490.15$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.51 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…d8a5backed Over | 50c | 410$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Under | 49c | 409.98$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…af1bbacked Under | 50c | 342.6$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 53c | 328$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.16 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 50c | 320$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 39c | 316.29$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.43 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 50c | 312$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 78c | 294.57$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 51c | 240$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…19aabacked Over | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 49c | 162.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 151.87$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3090…be73backed Under | 55c | 128.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 52c | 126.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 46c | 120.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 49c | 112.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 51c | 84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 51c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0444…55a5backed Over | 39c | 59.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 51c | 44.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 46c | 40.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…1f55backed Over | 50c | 40.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…af73backed Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 42c | 34.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Under | 79c | 31.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…52b4backed Over | 47c | 30.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 73c | 28.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c9…30e7backed Over | 53c | 28.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Under | 58c | 25.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 51c | 21.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 76c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 76c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 2.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 1.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Club Cerro Porteño (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.