NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x799c9356a94a730c15296d55380326f0744b79a71f5b21d955c83f41cc690a12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3028…21e7backed Under | 32c | 993$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…6796backed Under | 38c | 291.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 66c | 280.4$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Under | 37c | 271.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 71c | 266$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 69c | 257.8$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 25c | 250$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 174.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 73c | 135$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 30c | 98.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 68c | 81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Over | 68c | 80.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 170 | 57.1%97 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 63c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 75c | 20.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 75c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 75c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 4.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. KrakenKraken won
- Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.