NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45ce8b449e7ede4690550bd8a6ea0c1ed5bdef9a723cf69c9eb66cf31e754b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 56c | 2,556$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.83 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 44c | 1,031$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.64 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 774.27$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.27 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 713.58$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.27 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 57c | 609.13$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 44c | 527.59$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.14 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 51c | 494.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.62 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 454.32$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.39 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 401.1$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.59 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.17 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 28c | 361.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.25 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Under | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3028…21e7backed Under | 47c | 321$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 15c | 220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 14c | 175.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 162.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…6796backed Under | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 60c | 110$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 19c | 106.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…270abacked Under | 44c | 101.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…b7bfbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 44c | 95.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 44c | 89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 57c | 59.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 50c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 59c | 44.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…58c9backed Under | 44c | 40.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 33c | 39.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 59c | 33.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 65c | 32.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 40c | 26.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 26.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Over | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 52c | 25.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfc75…5431backed Under | 44c | 25.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 52c | 21.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. KrakenKraken won
- Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.