Tennis · resolved market
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Women's Singles Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79aab77a851e65d8458311f2bebe34a9c82671a2acb86c4cefaccfc6fd05fff1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,021 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66b6…159dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,047$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.8 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba81…dc35backed No | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 18c | 347$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 80c | 330.72$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f00…e4e0backed No | 48c | 213$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x262e…bce0backed No | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f92…eb88backed No | 48c | 208$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 56c | 206$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 368 | 39.1%144 W · 224 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e09…76d2backed No | 48c | 206$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…4fcbbacked No | 48c | 204$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3220…43e3backed No | 48c | 203$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…b845backed No | 48c | 199$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…a7c1backed No | 48c | 198$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e8…a1fdbacked Yes | 52c | 196$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab93…a19ebacked No | 48c | 194$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…a00dbacked Yes | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…7279backed No | 48c | 193$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc126…bea9backed Yes | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…3f22backed Yes | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269f…5128backed Yes | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53be…c78cbacked Yes | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f97…9a62backed No | 48c | 191$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…e45bbacked Yes | 52c | 191$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e19…2fe7backed Yes | 52c | 191$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7389…c95dbacked No | 48c | 188$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe69…da71backed Yes | 52c | 185$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…9fb7backed Yes | 52c | 183$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…478cbacked Yes | 55c | 180.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda8d…5148backed Yes | 52c | 178$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c7…3e45backed Yes | 52c | 173$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cf…0ce2backed Yes | 52c | 148$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 56c | 126.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 51c | 113.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 756 | 48.7%368 W · 388 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 43c | 101.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…215cbacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 40c | 81.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 271 | 31.4%85 W · 186 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…33b0backed Yes | 62c | 80.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 36c | 71.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 46c | 52.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 36c | 41.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…9653backed Yes | 56c | 35.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 61 | 73.8%45 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…38babacked Yes | 57c | 34.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 38c | 34.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 42c | 34.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…45d8backed Yes | 60c | 33.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 43c | 25.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…4638backed No | 55c | 23.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed Yes | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Women's Singles Tournament?this page
- Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Women's Singles Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.