NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79b91f8c676e85853b0dcebc26a4a1eeccb453c4d16b824aadf04e30698ccd94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Rockets, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Pistons | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.98 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pistons | 52c | 3,498$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Pistons | 51c | 3,354$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.23 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 48c | 3,111$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Rockets | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Rockets | 49c | 1,528$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.95 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Rockets | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…e7aabacked Rockets | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…6f0cbacked Rockets | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Rockets | 49c | 490$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.1 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…4694backed Rockets | 50c | 360$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed83…a91fbacked Rockets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…b253backed Rockets | 42c | 174.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pistons | 51c | 81.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201f…edd1backed Rockets | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Rockets | 48c | 78.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Pistons | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Rockets | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…efdbbacked Rockets | 50c | 26.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Pistons | 52c | 20.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)this page
- Pistons vs. RocketsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.