Asian League · resolved market
Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79da2d231f364fdc8bf25db7754f40d820a7550f34669ccc493a4a26425218f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tōkyō Verdyof JEF United Ichihara Chiba, Tōkyō Verdy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6267…7b54backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 151.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fb…5280backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 150.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2611…521ebacked Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 147.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e70…740dbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 146.57$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd2…b38bbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 145.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…18ebbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 141.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2e…fd0bbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 141.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3870…10c0backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 140.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe147…06d2backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 140.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…251ebacked Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 140.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5d…cb42backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 140.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…9113backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 139.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +60%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…36e0backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 139.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…9becbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 137.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d0…ceb7backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 136.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa96…d733backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 135.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8422…5907backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 135.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7a…f3d6backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 135.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…77bdbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 134.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d4…3f2abacked Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 133.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…7082backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 133.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…2923backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 133.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d32…2154backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 133.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…97cdbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 133.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…e3e1backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 132.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac2…6908backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 132.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b26…10c6backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 131.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8748…a5cbbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 129.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fb…6a96backed Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 125.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0f…820bbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 50c | 124.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5Under won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5Under won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5Under won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.