Asian League · resolved market
Tōkyō Verdy vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbed7e38d580fe1e86bd3befdd4085bbd08bd4e5858f9e2faa027d58a948368c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 13c | 1,810$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.1 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed Over | 12c | 816.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 71c | 369.53$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 20c | 299.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 28c | 298$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 36c | 208.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 74c | 124.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 74c | 114.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Under | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 38c | 49.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…7a51backed Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 59c | 37.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Under | 63c | 31.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Under | 76c | 22.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 20.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 63c | 19.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-2.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5Under won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5Under won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.