Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Auburn Tigers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79fae0dbcd585871ccc3941ffb6efa36eeaf89a73555c22013d7e015b3c989cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auburn Tigersof Auburn Tigers, Illinois State Redbirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 43c | 478.97$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.24 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Auburn Tigers | 56c | 337.5$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Illinois State Redbirds | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Illinois State Redbirds | 44c | 190$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 16c | 164$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 46c | 149.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Auburn Tigers | 57c | 105.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Auburn Tigers | 67c | 85.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f8…17f1backed Auburn Tigers | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Auburn Tigers | 53c | 63.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Auburn Tigers | 54c | 62.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed Illinois State Redbirds | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216a…1f6ebacked Auburn Tigers | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Auburn Tigers | 54c | 54.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccc…62ebbacked Auburn Tigers | 57c | 51.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Auburn Tigers | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…3811backed Auburn Tigers | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Auburn Tigers | 52c | 45.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 315 | 37.8%119 W · 196 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Auburn Tigers | 49c | 42.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Auburn Tigers | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 310 | 57.4%178 W · 132 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…40d1backed Auburn Tigers | 56c | 28.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Auburn Tigers | 56c | 19.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Auburn Tigers | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Auburn Tigers | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Auburn Tigers (-6.5)this page
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Auburn TigersAuburn Tigers won
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Auburn Tigers: O/U 148.5Over won
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Auburn Tigers: O/U 149.5Over won
- Spread: Auburn Tigers (-7.5)Auburn Tigers won
- Spread: Auburn Tigers (-8.5)Auburn Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.