MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a0dd0cfed9ebd6fbcfb070b121139407b21714b7406ab4af9a90b211b434217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 46c | 6,771$3,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,139.24 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 55c | 3,000$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.87 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 45c | 2,864$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.73 | 1,305 | 50.2%655 W · 650 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2972…3f29backed No | 54c | 1,804$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.9 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 54c | 1,800$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.16 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 54c | 1,296$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.39 | 294 | 51%150 W · 144 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 46c | 1,004$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.89 | 801 | 47.7%382 W · 419 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 52c | 956.7$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.7 | 191 | 58.1%111 W · 80 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.74 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -9.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 54c | 646.42$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.42 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 47c | 500$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 52c | 380$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 53c | 377.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.92 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 54c | 375$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 46c | 353.37$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.54 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…e1c6backed No | 54c | 280$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 46c | 190$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 1,543 | 48.6%750 W · 793 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 181 | 53.6%97 W · 84 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed No | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 46c | 133.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 46c | 133$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 757 | 53.2%403 W · 354 L | +24.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 54c | 125.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 553 | 47%260 W · 293 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 389 | 51.2%199 W · 190 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…bed3backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 46c | 32.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 716 | 52.4%375 W · 341 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 266 | 48.1%128 W · 138 L | -14.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed No | 54c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royalsthis page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.