MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48387287150d1b37a93e7fb32b84fce81c65970e5ebeec14e763ff81f421732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 49c | 204,081$100,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,999.59 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 172,181$87,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,368.72 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 28,506$14,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,967.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 6,750$3,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,307.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 49c | 5,078$2,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,477.59 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 49c | 2,648$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.72 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 2,297$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 2,053$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.19 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 1,264$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.36 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 954$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.08 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 52c | 864$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.72 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…6465backed Under | 51c | 750.18$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.59 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 649.85$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.93 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 506.9$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Over | 50c | 454.3$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.15 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 33c | 402.25$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.74 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 387.92$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 49c | 357.41$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.86 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 51c | 350.75$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.87 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 209.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e9…7302backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 142.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 106.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 49c | 96.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over | 50c | 92.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 51c | 56.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 49c | 39.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 57c | 33.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 51c | 28.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Over | 50c | 27.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 72c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2da…ce6abacked Over | 49c | 25.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.