Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a1315844525db8c379ab69ee2705213066796bcafff16558574d4a58808986a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes | 0c | 15,345$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…4417backed Yes | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acb…1e38backed Yes | 12c | 503.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 500.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ca…f208backed Yes | 9c | 444.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 426.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 371.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 364.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 19c | 356.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f46…06f0backed Yes | 11c | 322.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 8c | 293.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 292.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…aacbbacked Yes | 4c | 266.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 13c | 253.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 663 | 21.7%144 W · 519 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 19c | 167.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed Yes | 28c | 164.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked Yes | 18c | 146.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 132.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…5633backed Yes | 22c | 126.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 18c | 125.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 114.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 15c | 114.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 482 | 45.9%221 W · 261 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked Yes | 11c | 113.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 95.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,515 | 15.4%234 W · 1,281 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…734ebacked No | 74c | 94.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 17c | 75.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 78c | 64.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…1252backed No | 78c | 55.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 77c | 50.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 22c | 47.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 73c | 33.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,005 | 51.8%521 W · 484 L | +108.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 72c | 30.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed No | 71c | 27.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 76c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.