Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34c20297ccb33d607b76d9f19b37d303969f8b7fb40db9afdadad43bdaf5c699
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x579a…9908backed Yes | 5c | 1,998$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 41c | 1,038$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.95 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 5c | 1,018$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 2c | 700.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 21c | 353.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 281.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 264.19$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…1252backed Yes | 45c | 228.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 36c | 223.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 71c | 204.49$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 31c | 195.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…4417backed Yes | 41c | 191.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 30c | 173.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 161.73$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 160.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 55c | 156.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 59c | 135.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 68c | 112.6$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 52c | 97.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 55c | 95.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 70c | 94.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 38c | 94.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 92.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 29c | 83.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 60c | 82.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 60c | 82.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 49c | 68.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 18c | 68.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 60c | 63.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5571backed Yes | 27c | 61.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 54c | 60.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 75c | 59.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 50c | 57.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 56.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 27c | 55.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 53.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 62c | 53.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 57c | 53.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 51.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 57c | 49.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 49.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…7a80backed Yes | 47c | 47.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…ba61backed No | 63c | 45.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 58c | 44.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…9ee4backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 61c | 39.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 47c | 37.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 60c | 35.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 42c | 35.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 54c | 35.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 34.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 59c | 32.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 46c | 30.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 52c | 30.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…dbffbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 41c | 28.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 46c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed No | 43c | 25.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 78c | 24.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 57c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 61c | 19.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 57c | 18.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 59c | 17.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.