Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72aa4ac5b489afebe3d076a259079a42e89ba7a36cd7b4eddf257b00031ed6bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 2c | 9,231$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.27 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 0c | 5,712$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 40c | 992.41$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.93 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…f51ebacked No | 2c | 736.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 2c | 508.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…1252backed No | 75c | 492.29$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.58 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 48c | 411.92$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.22 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 75c | 391.01$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 373.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 373.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 79c | 350.22$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.16 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 298.26$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 75c | 295.38$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.62 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 282.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed Yes | 41c | 273.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.25 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 71c | 257.32$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 68c | 250.01$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.88 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 244.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 61c | 197.05$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 188.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 166.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 28c | 166.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 17c | 154.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.03 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 29c | 144.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.36 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 67c | 143.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 28c | 129.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.19 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 79c | 128.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.87 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabc6…acb4backed No | 18c | 128.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 28c | 123.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 118.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 37c | 112.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 30c | 111$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Yes | 27c | 108.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 23c | 107.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 44c | 106.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked No | 72c | 103.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 38c | 102.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 11c | 98.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 21c | 89.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 19c | 86.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 22c | 84.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 36c | 83.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 28c | 81.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 59c | 81.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 63c | 80.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 79.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 59c | 77.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 32c | 76.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 15c | 74.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 26c | 71.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 33c | 71.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 42c | 67.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 45c | 67.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 74c | 67.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 39c | 66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 39c | 65.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed Yes | 69c | 65.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 63c | 65.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 73c | 64.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 61.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 38c | 58.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 58.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 66c | 57.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 57.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 67c | 56.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 39c | 54.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 54.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 52.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 52.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 39c | 51.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 63c | 51.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 21c | 51.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25e…5d00backed Yes | 37c | 50.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 49.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 27c | 49.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 32c | 48.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…7a80backed Yes | 43c | 46.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 44.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 43.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 63c | 41.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 61c | 40.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…7b38backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +59%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 38c | 39.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 35c | 38.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 80c | 36.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed Yes | 58c | 36.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 36c | 35.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Yes | 55c | 33.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 41c | 32.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 75c | 29.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…b159backed No | 59c | 29.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c31…9450backed Yes | 37c | 28.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ee…3c21backed No | 68c | 24.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.8wins | -0.57per pick | 77cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.