Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a1717fa5a408fd941d5b63bbbc423a1145b1c173a926b4e6f614bc68a906e52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Virtus.pro | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Virtus.pro | 35c | 5,232$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.94 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Team Liquid | 66c | 1,390$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.48 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed Virtus.pro | 20c | 866.11$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.62 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Team Liquid | 68c | 775.47$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.54 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid | 66c | 745.75$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.04 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Liquid | 62c | 669.2$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.42 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Liquid | 64c | 600$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Team Liquid | 80c | 346$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Virtus.pro | 45c | 328.87$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.03 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db8…4de8backed Virtus.pro | 31c | 248.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…cc22backed Virtus.pro | 45c | 224.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…1beabacked Team Liquid | 61c | 208.32$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Virtus.pro | 38c | 159.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Team Liquid | 55c | 158.29$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd365…d5d7backed Virtus.pro | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Liquid | 70c | 132.19$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Virtus.pro | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Virtus.pro | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Team Liquid | 66c | 95.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Virtus.pro | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Team Liquid | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Virtus.pro | 17c | 79.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f36…43acbacked Team Liquid | 60c | 74.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…97b5backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 64.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed Team Liquid | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Team Liquid | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Liquid | 74c | 31.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Virtus.pro | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…030ebacked Team Liquid | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked Team Liquid | 65c | 28.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…85edbacked Team Liquid | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…e862backed Team Liquid | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsVirtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5)Virtus.pro won
- Series: Most kills?Virtus.pro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.