NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a1bdfc8b13f33e0c440a677bcd6fff9a27b6d9bee571186128bfcfb7038a856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,125 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 961.1$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.25 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 55c | 911.34$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.56 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 36c | 847.13$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.17 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 62c | 557.14$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.09 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 552.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.55 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 45c | 330.52$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.06 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 44c | 303.95$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.21 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbb…8e8ebacked Under | 72c | 229$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 30c | 214.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefd5…3d23backed Under | 72c | 209$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8895…29a5backed Under | 72c | 201$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7a…53b9backed Under | 72c | 184$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 9c | 163.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…ee0cbacked Under | 72c | 163$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd3…355ebacked Under | 72c | 148$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Under | 46c | 145.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c43…e2a4backed Over | 28c | 144$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Under | 16c | 143.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…531dbacked Under | 72c | 140$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f83…8390backed Over | 28c | 139$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 54c | 131.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…1bacbacked Over | 28c | 128$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…f437backed Over | 28c | 126$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 60c | 116.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…9684backed Over | 28c | 116$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 114.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…29b5backed Over | 28c | 111$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Under | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2114…2c48backed Over | 28c | 99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf530…6ae1backed Over | 28c | 94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…d93abacked Under | 56c | 93.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd24backed Over | 28c | 86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 19c | 84.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 71c | 79.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked Under | 60c | 77.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…bca9backed Over | 28c | 77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff9…2d02backed Over | 28c | 77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…4c8fbacked Over | 28c | 77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed Under | 29c | 69.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 58c | 66.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed Under | 39c | 63.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 27c | 56.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 52c | 56.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Under | 68c | 55.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 38c | 49.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 28c | 49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…baf0backed Over | 74c | 45.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63fe…9f1ebacked Under | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 62c | 33.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Over | 65c | 32.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…591abacked Over | 43c | 30.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Over | 44c | 30.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked Under | 57c | 26.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 46c | 25.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…d11fbacked Under | 56c | 24.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Under | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5this page
- Penguins vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Penguins vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.