NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00eb847f4c3282977771e30010eb1a094e030fdfd56f2d60e62a6f3e12c766bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,394 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Penguins | 64c | 1,111$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.04 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Penguins | 62c | 913.7$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.58 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Golden Knights | 36c | 902.33$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.49 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Golden Knights | 39c | 867.01$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.27 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Penguins | 63c | 802.11$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Penguins | 63c | 662.08$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.11 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Golden Knights | 36c | 556.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.51 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Golden Knights | 37c | 482.15$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.02 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Penguins | 61c | 477$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.97 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Golden Knights | 37c | 439.72$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.02 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7700…a1f5backed Penguins | 51c | 385$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Golden Knights | 37c | 379.02$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.8 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Golden Knights | 78c | 340$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2e…0433backed Penguins | 64c | 329.78$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Penguins | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Golden Knights | 52c | 232$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.31 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Penguins | 65c | 230$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.27 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…f103backed Penguins | 64c | 214.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights | 41c | 199$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Penguins | 59c | 198.7$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Golden Knights | 37c | 190$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Golden Knights | 77c | 187.1$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Golden Knights | 39c | 158.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Penguins | 65c | 154.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Golden Knights | 37c | 144.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Golden Knights | 37c | 125$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…a144backed Golden Knights | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…50a5backed Golden Knights | 36c | 113.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0463…f69ebacked Golden Knights | 36c | 109.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…a3b9backed Golden Knights | 36c | 106.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Penguins | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Penguins | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Penguins | 26c | 88.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Penguins | 60c | 82.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Penguins | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Golden Knights | 37c | 77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf833…9e29backed Golden Knights | 36c | 74.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Golden Knights | 49c | 72.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dec…058cbacked Golden Knights | 36c | 71.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…5c32backed Golden Knights | 36c | 68.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Golden Knights | 35c | 68.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1736…32f1backed Golden Knights | 37c | 54.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Golden Knights | 36c | 41.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Penguins | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Penguins | 63c | 37.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Golden Knights | 40c | 37.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Golden Knights | 36c | 36.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Golden Knights | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Penguins | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…11ffbacked Golden Knights | 36c | 27.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Golden Knights | 77c | 27.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Penguins | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…8bddbacked Penguins | 57c | 18.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…ffffbacked Penguins | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Golden Knights | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Penguins vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.