UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a1ff84fa872f17e94da44e26052932e1ca58bf5220f8e52bc492ecbc339bdde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,211 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 37c | 3,204$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.47 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 63c | 1,907$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.5 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Over | 64c | 1,031$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 35c | 877.01$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.55 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 38c | 674.89$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.16 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Over | 64c | 479.27$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.63 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 64c | 262.15$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.41 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8f…7432backed Over | 62c | 204$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Under | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 64c | 144.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Over | 63c | 80.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked Over | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Over | 62c | 65.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…1495backed Under | 39c | 27.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked Under | 49c | 24.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…87f7backed Over | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Over | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card)Drew Dober won
- Will Drew Dober win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Michael Johnson win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.