NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Panthers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a2f53799cb7bc9535aec3ee7b582040c830507196c6ecd773102f08e21e3493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Bills, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Panthers | 58c | 3,943$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.96 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Panthers | 66c | 1,900$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Bills | 42c | 1,500$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Bills | 42c | 1,163$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +122%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Bills | 39c | 1,136$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.45 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Panthers | 56c | 533.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.34 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Panthers | 68c | 441.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.43 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Panthers | 54c | 415$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.9 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…6565backed Bills | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Bills | 34c | 315$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Panthers | 66c | 292.57$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Panthers | 74c | 234.4$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Bills | 43c | 206$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…5ef8backed Bills | 31c | 200.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Bills | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Panthers | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked Bills | 34c | 170.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Panthers | 59c | 144$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Bills | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…32c5backed Bills | 37c | 125.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Bills | 43c | 111$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Bills | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Bills | 43c | 89.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Panthers | 76c | 85.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Bills | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 114 | 7.9%9 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…dd2ebacked Bills | 34c | 65.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f64…ba0abacked Panthers | 67c | 64.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcc…a361backed Bills | 34c | 57.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…171ebacked Panthers | 67c | 55.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Panthers | 65c | 15.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.