Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a3a20ecd5bb08ab3c4b2f10b45f23d2bf0441d3615bce39d99df4e741b9d894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 707.97$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 237.89$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 234$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 6c | 216.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 212.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 210.08$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6ac9backed Yes | 48c | 179.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 154.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 45c | 135.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 116.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 55c | 108.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 92.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 55c | 88.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 44c | 81.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 77.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…9963backed Yes | 43c | 69.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 54c | 67.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 56c | 64.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 23c | 64.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 54c | 59.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 54c | 57.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 44c | 56.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 44c | 56.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 21c | 54.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 72c | 52.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 50.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 33c | 50.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 43c | 45.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 42.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 45c | 41.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 43c | 39.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 34.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 57c | 33.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 51c | 33.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 49c | 30.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 66c | 29.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 53c | 28.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 22.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 59c | 19.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 56c | 18.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.