Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a4aa4f1c86a0685faf84731121fc9583b1947f433c0ef3bfd51bf195a36c413
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,228$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.87 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 56c | 699.98$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.99 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…42f0backed Yes | 73c | 651.81$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 7c | 530.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 69c | 487.49$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.24 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 324$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 33c | 302.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.51 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 63c | 220.3$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 58c | 218.62$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 40c | 195.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 61c | 173.39$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 167$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 154.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 61c | 154$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 72c | 153.92$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 149.1$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 146.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 137.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 38c | 130.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 57c | 106$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 34c | 104.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 102.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 31c | 93.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 41c | 82.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 25c | 78.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 61c | 77.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 19c | 68.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 38c | 68.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 62.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 22c | 62.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 59.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 55c | 52.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…7438backed Yes | 42c | 47.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 46.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 45.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 39c | 37.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 37.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 30c | 32.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 70c | 31.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 57c | 31.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 74c | 28.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 58c | 25.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd5…d470backed No | 59c | 22.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 61c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 57c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 57c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.