Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a7675f9df5ce7d70bf0e1684b9fa47287920ed0d2b0758ebf34261ed8d89bc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brisbane Roar FCof Melbourne Victory FC, Brisbane Roar FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Brisbane Roar FC | 62c | 2,002$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.15 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Melbourne Victory FC | 39c | 1,090$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Melbourne Victory FC | 35c | 568.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Melbourne Victory FC | 34c | 512.35$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.2 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 3c | 426.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Brisbane Roar FC | 66c | 181.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Melbourne Victory FC | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 53c | 135.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Brisbane Roar FC | 46c | 109.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Brisbane Roar FC | 53c | 77.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Brisbane Roar FC | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 38c | 39.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…bc51backed Melbourne Victory FC | 57c | 34.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Brisbane Roar FC | 65c | 32.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Brisbane Roar FC | 64c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Brisbane Roar FC | 67c | 18.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…a1d7backed Brisbane Roar FC | 70c | 14.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.