Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a82c0ec20db47c36ae8a283f3ccb82ab3fb8c0da5fc80fbddd8de45f778957d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 285.81$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 13c | 159.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.77 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 13c | 159.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.44 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 76c | 125.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 116.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 10c | 111.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 19c | 107.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 105.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 20c | 104.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 93.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 76c | 87.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 14c | 85.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 35c | 71.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 65.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 77c | 59.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 43c | 46.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 66c | 45.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 45.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 34c | 43.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 65c | 42.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 57c | 35.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 57c | 34.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…93c2backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 22 | 95.5%21 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 73cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 40c | 31.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 46c | 31.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 75c | 27.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 37c | 27.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 75c | 26.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 57c | 26.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…e655backed No | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…cf50backed No | 56c | 18.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked Yes | 71c | 15.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c2…c9bbbacked No | 80c | 12.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.