MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7abb772f69f88c9b53d81417316c160aba69ec752ed447da414a7f3f9bd23fe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 21,423$12,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,210.99 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 11,799$5,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,725.53 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 6,972$3,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,904.38 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…d81bbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 5,555$2,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,166.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 4,762$2,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,718.36 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 3,811$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,157.54 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 3,236$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.11 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 2,771$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.57 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 2,500$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 1,862$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.55 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 1,400$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Boston Red Sox | 17c | 754.36$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.15 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 634.74$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 610$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 531.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 325.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.38 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c3…cd63backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 299.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Boston Red Sox | 19c | 278.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 222$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 138.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 64.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 62.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 55.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 38.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 26.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 19.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.