MLB · resolved market
Mets vs. Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ad6ac087cd72c0a1319f68564edc83f9f6611f948341ee6b2d275484c437295
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Diamondbacksof Mets, Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mets | 51c | 2,054$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.71 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Mets | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Diamondbacks | 49c | 900.01$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.67 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Diamondbacks | 53c | 661.3$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.3 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Mets | 30c | 654.84$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks | 50c | 653.55$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.08 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Diamondbacks | 77c | 600.12$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Diamondbacks | 70c | 549.72$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.56 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Diamondbacks | 50c | 540$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Mets | 10c | 475$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 210.15$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Mets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Mets | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 171.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Diamondbacks | 48c | 164$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 98.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…ac06backed Mets | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Mets | 48c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Diamondbacks | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Mets | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Diamondbacks | 49c | 47.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Diamondbacks | 78c | 44.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mets | 51c | 43.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Diamondbacks | 50c | 40.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Mets | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Diamondbacks | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,055 | 50.3%531 W · 524 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Diamondbacks | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Diamondbacks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Mets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.