MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7adc16c2892a87ee389b06f96e7a7699750496393c262c0a2661069d32d40004
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 45c | 14,583$6,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,562.46 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 12,456$6,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,603.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 56c | 1,005$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.2 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Over | 56c | 1,005$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.15 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 404.33$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.86 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 16c | 392$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 43c | 290$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 80c | 226$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 43c | 117$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 43c | 99.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Under | 50c | 98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 34c | 77.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over | 55c | 66.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 18c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 57c | 37.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 69c | 29.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 57c | 21.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.