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MLB · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,264 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf405…9df2backed Arizona Diamondbacks80c2,514$2,000 inWon+$513.525366.4%168 W · 85 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Arizona Diamondbacks46c1,795$826 inWon+$969.355052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Colorado Rockies54c1,740$940 inLost-$939.61,92653.4%1,029 W · 897 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies21c1,135$240 inLost-$240.328,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Colorado Rockies13c1,010$127 inLost-$127.179,89146.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L+40.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks47c622.53$292 inWon+$330.4612,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies21c606.27$124 inLost-$124.448,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Colorado Rockies53c570.3$302 inLost-$302.022,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Colorado Rockies56c535.71$300 inLost-$3002,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks47c469.99$221 inWon+$249.2311,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies56c455.34$255 inLost-$255.0711,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Arizona Diamondbacks46c368.3$169 inWon+$198.812,41848.6%1,174 W · 1,244 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Colorado Rockies52c359.99$187 inLost-$187.21,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Arizona Diamondbacks44c340.91$150 inWon+$190.9130452%158 W · 146 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies46c310.24$144 inLost-$143.696,13255.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L+346.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Arizona Diamondbacks48c300$144 inWon+$15611550.4%58 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Colorado Rockies4c245.24$11 inLost-$10.9976044.5%338 W · 422 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e4a…5ba6backed Arizona Diamondbacks46c200$92 inWon+$10811542.6%49 W · 66 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Colorado Rockies54c190$103 inLost-$102.648354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Colorado Rockies53c162$86 inLost-$86.4172648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Colorado Rockies53c150.94$80 inLost-$8066551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks44c138$61 inWon+$77.110343.7%45 W · 58 L-9.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies52c114.12$60 inLost-$59.587,07850.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L+1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Colorado Rockies9c112.48$10 inLost-$10.4241936.5%153 W · 266 L-31.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x898a…499abacked Colorado Rockies25c111.01$27 inLost-$27.324358.1%25 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Arizona Diamondbacks48c103.22$50 inWon+$53.2256946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Colorado Rockies45c98$44 inLost-$44.131038.4%119 W · 191 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks48c63.46$30 inWon+$334,55549.2%2,239 W · 2,316 L-9.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Colorado Rockies54c60$32 inLost-$32.416553.3%88 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e24…b31fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks47c53.19$25 inWon+$28.193756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Colorado Rockies54c37.04$20 inLost-$2033051.8%171 W · 159 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Colorado Rockies62c32$20 inLost-$19.841,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Arizona Diamondbacks48c28.16$14 inWon+$14.6544648.7%217 W · 229 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies54c25.93$14 inLost-$1489950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Colorado Rockies54c22$12 inLost-$11.8893353.9%503 W · 430 L+22.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Arizona Diamondbacks80c19.15$15 inWon+$3.8938352.2%200 W · 183 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.