CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aef440d46e82f8018a5186fec77ec01fba2b7a7ea6bab9e7e9f345ffaa2e096
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butterflyof Butterfly, G2 Ares
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e86…6dfbbacked G2 Ares | 8c | 557.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Butterfly | 62c | 340.75$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.03 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Butterfly | 78c | 241.49$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 519 | 42.2%219 W · 300 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed G2 Ares | 28c | 236.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked G2 Ares | 37c | 198.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…e563backed Butterfly | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked G2 Ares | 21c | 183.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…0635backed G2 Ares | 54c | 180$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 317 | 49.5%157 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed G2 Ares | 33c | 165$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked G2 Ares | 34c | 147$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked G2 Ares | 27c | 118.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…6df9backed Butterfly | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 162 | 45.7%74 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d99…8c5cbacked Butterfly | 38c | 82.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Butterfly | 72c | 59.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Butterfly | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked G2 Ares | 67c | 37.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Butterfly | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…64b2backed Butterfly | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Butterfly | 72c | 27.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked G2 Ares | 67c | 24.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Butterfly | 66c | 24.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Butterfly | 63c | 24.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Butterfly | 73c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageButterfly won
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs G2 Ares - Map 2 WinnerButterfly won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.