CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fa789f4fa043006160db69e4a803a2f5c732bdbeb3f58dae626487dfb0aa3a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butterflyof Butterfly, G2 Ares
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked Butterfly | 50c | 3,404$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.14 | 756 | 52.6%398 W · 358 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked G2 Ares | 3c | 2,500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed G2 Ares | 29c | 2,017$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.15 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9929…15a8backed G2 Ares | 39c | 1,500$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.66 | 171 | 63.7%109 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Butterfly | 55c | 1,154$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.56 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…4d51backed G2 Ares | 45c | 843$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.21 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed G2 Ares | 49c | 757.69$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.9 | 809 | 42.3%342 W · 467 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…f75bbacked G2 Ares | 49c | 585.48$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.16 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed G2 Ares | 18c | 512.64$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d99…9c27backed Butterfly | 50c | 503.64$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 144 | 39.6%57 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked G2 Ares | 51c | 500.39$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.2 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked G2 Ares | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 758 | 33.4%253 W · 505 L | -48.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked G2 Ares | 46c | 496.83$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.54 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Butterfly | 68c | 468.9$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.85 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed G2 Ares | 45c | 398.67$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.65 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e84fbacked G2 Ares | 45c | 388.89$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…59ffbacked G2 Ares | 49c | 376.45$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.46 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…2217backed Butterfly | 57c | 348.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Butterfly | 55c | 332.87$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.02 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed G2 Ares | 19c | 330.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…6158backed Butterfly | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 380 | 52.6%200 W · 180 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0355backed G2 Ares | 53c | 294$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.82 | 233 | 56.2%131 W · 102 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed G2 Ares | 45c | 278.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.54 | 550 | 39.6%218 W · 332 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed Butterfly | 70c | 276.19$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed G2 Ares | 4c | 264$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked G2 Ares | 47c | 233$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked G2 Ares | 32c | 229$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked G2 Ares | 60c | 217.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked G2 Ares | 28c | 205.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ea…7668backed Butterfly | 50c | 200.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked G2 Ares | 45c | 199$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked G2 Ares | 22c | 167.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…8c32backed G2 Ares | 47c | 164.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked G2 Ares | 8c | 158.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Butterfly | 54c | 109.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 378 | 48.1%182 W · 196 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8818…f8acbacked G2 Ares | 48c | 100.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adb…221ebacked G2 Ares | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed G2 Ares | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed G2 Ares | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…4371backed Butterfly | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 858 | 51.6%443 W · 415 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed G2 Ares | 47c | 97.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1efb…dd8abacked G2 Ares | 47c | 85.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked G2 Ares | 21c | 80.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Butterfly | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Butterfly | 54c | 72.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed G2 Ares | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 336 | 27.7%93 W · 243 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed G2 Ares | 20c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 394 | 40.4%159 W · 235 L | +30.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed G2 Ares | 30c | 62.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1273…8eddbacked Butterfly | 52c | 61.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Butterfly | 52c | 55.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed G2 Ares | 47c | 55.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 609 | 54%329 W · 280 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…35c6backed Butterfly | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Butterfly | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked G2 Ares | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked G2 Ares | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked G2 Ares | 35c | 39.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 526 | 45.1%237 W · 289 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked G2 Ares | 49c | 30.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Butterfly | 52c | 26.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 422 | 55.7%235 W · 187 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e6…9622backed Butterfly | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…4efebacked G2 Ares | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…0986backed Butterfly | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Butterfly | 52c | 19.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 186 | 63.4%118 W · 68 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Butterfly | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614a…6d3fbacked Butterfly | 75c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs G2 Ares - Map 1 WinnerButterfly won
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs G2 Ares - Map 2 WinnerButterfly won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.