Movies · resolved market
Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the top global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7af29d852c4a7aa9b364aa3843abee8fe7061965263d98569923bf712f5be87d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 12c | 602.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 11c | 288$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341a…973dbacked Yes | 29c | 240.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +243.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 18c | 132$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…76e5backed No | 74c | 110$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 11c | 103.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…175bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 75c | 93.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…0371backed Yes | 78c | 83.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked No | 69c | 82.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes | 65c | 52.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 24c | 52.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the top global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Night Agent: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.