Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7af4935c721a745283e61b30cc767c08b3f87c5e862e2045c86390a5d4f64eaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 6c | 361.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 44c | 199.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 190.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 171.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…bf61backed No | 67c | 149.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 145.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…0a9abacked Yes | 36c | 132.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 30c | 102.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 94.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 93.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 90.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 85.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed Yes | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 33c | 82.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 16c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 16c | 73.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 66.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 61.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 61.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 77c | 58.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 58c | 51.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 38c | 50.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…cd42backed No | 62c | 48.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 26c | 48.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 48.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 46.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 33c | 39.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 68c | 38.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 67c | 34.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 30.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 39c | 29.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 36c | 28.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 27.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 26.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 66c | 24.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed No | 74c | 22.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 72c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed No | 67c | 18.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 18.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.