MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b0fe7285b606ff5c6d492a4c25e356107dfd7551a6a9fa107cd3b80a19410a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 43c | 11,704$5,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,055.41 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…236dbacked Over | 52c | 5,629$2,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,674.03 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 66c | 3,589$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 48c | 2,448$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.81 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 52c | 2,331$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.82 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 2,222$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.44 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 48c | 1,956$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.21 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed Under | 49c | 1,939$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.01 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 47c | 1,337$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.38 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…fa8ebacked Under | 52c | 1,035$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd64d…28a6backed Over | 52c | 971.2$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.18 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 55c | 691.33$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.25 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 632.4$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 564.81$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.7 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 39c | 538.64$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.17 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 41c | 471.71$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.05 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 49c | 446.21$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.64 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fea1backed Under | 51c | 416$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 41c | 393.09$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.6 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Under | 51c | 388.24$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 382.13$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 7c | 316.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 74c | 282.72$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 261.8$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.04 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 50c | 259.37$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.97 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 52c | 248.4$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.17 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 23c | 247.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Under | 49c | 232.47$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.91 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…d613backed Under | 43c | 225.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 52c | 195.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…01b3backed Over | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 50c | 173.95$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 50c | 149.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…9384backed Under | 48c | 148.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 141.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 137$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 65c | 111.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Under | 51c | 102$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 48c | 99.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4479…c84abacked Over | 50c | 96.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Over | 49c | 89.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6196…1a64backed Over | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 175 | 58.3%102 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 61c | 71.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 69c | 67.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…282dbacked Under | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8702…6304backed Under | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 50c | 54.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 65c | 48.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 53c | 44.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 73c | 41.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 48c | 40.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 37c | 38.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 49c | 38.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Under | 33c | 34.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…235cbacked Under | 45c | 29.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 60c | 29.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 51c | 29.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 48c | 22.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Under | 48c | 22.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…5891backed Over | 49c | 21.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 64c | 20.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Over | 50c | 20.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay RaysCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.