MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b1f4f3d0541b135d50a3a2b3c8e44c433632bc7bcf0803d06ed87b8cb55d5d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 311.03$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.21 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…bae7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 103.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 98.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 91.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 81.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 69.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 62.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 56.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 55.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 53.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 40.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 26.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a2…6acfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.