MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d5613d410a6dd490f9f7b31a6ffdfd9401c918c4683f0964a09a07c56f8f757
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 53c | 30,653$16,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,245.88 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 47c | 30,000$14,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,900 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 51c | 11,165$5,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,471.04 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 9,991$4,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,019.75 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…7309backed Over | 49c | 8,725$4,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,275.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 6,072$3,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,028.42 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…236dbacked Over | 50c | 5,647$2,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,823.67 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 54c | 1,824$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.19 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,480$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 52c | 971.2$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.18 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 54c | 889.34$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.25 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 862.81$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 52c | 842.55$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.02 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Over | 50c | 707.84$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.32 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Under | 49c | 704.98$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.54 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Under | 51c | 696.55$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.31 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 479.3$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.24 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 49c | 458.45$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.64 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Under | 51c | 443.51$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 51c | 437.48$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.53 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 52c | 398.12$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Under | 51c | 367.2$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.02 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Over | 53c | 366.72$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.36 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 337.39$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.08 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 43c | 334.46$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.07 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 22c | 299.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 51c | 283.23$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.63 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Under | 64c | 246.83$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 51c | 230.49$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.41 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 50c | 212.13$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.06 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 50c | 203.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 47c | 198$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 52c | 186.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 51c | 167.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…e454backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 56c | 97.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 54c | 92.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 50c | 77.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 77.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 50c | 66.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 77c | 63.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 49c | 58.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 51c | 52.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 49c | 46.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 47c | 39.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…57a9backed Under | 47c | 32.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 30.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 52c | 26.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b015backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 79c | 24.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987a…40cfbacked Under | 51c | 20.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.