MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42c7c3fc7f76d6a0a96e5104a8314e4fa2f6200883316226b2af5061b3a8c9f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 1,596$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.66 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 1,049$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.48 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 576$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.88 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 305.97$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.19 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 290.27$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 289.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.71 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 214.15$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.06 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 177.97$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 161.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 148.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 148.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 109.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 93.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 78.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 75.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 53.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 52.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 49.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 45.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 45.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 40.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 36.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 32.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 24.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 22.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -10.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.