Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b2a45f0adfa90ec0f812f2753623826725243b58c055c1e2b136425327f41be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 72,673$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.78 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…975abacked No | 1c | 1,810$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 497.04$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.4 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 434.56$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 393.54$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 341.91$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.41 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 250.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.91 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 241.37$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 210.34$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 156.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.45 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 153.81$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 144.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 17c | 131.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 17c | 128$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 12c | 117.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 29c | 105.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed No | 75c | 104$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 98.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 70c | 97.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 30c | 88.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 25c | 81.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 71c | 74.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 69.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 75c | 68.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 67c | 66.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 24c | 61.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 30c | 47.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 67c | 44.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 70c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 40.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 35c | 40.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 32c | 35.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 59c | 33.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 72c | 25.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 74c | 25.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed No | 69c | 25.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 72c | 22.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…441bbacked Yes | 71c | 22.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 70c | 19.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…52e8backed No | 65c | 19.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked No | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 76c | 16.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 75c | 15.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.