CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b3982a3ebc4a67eea41cdffd74d474b8665c26834121fdb44fb2e9be5056537
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lilmixof G2 Ares, Lilmix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked G2 Ares | 47c | 872.11$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.52 | 211 | 46%97 W · 114 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked G2 Ares | 67c | 516.34$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.75 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Lilmix | 33c | 421.24$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.32 | 499 | 35.1%175 W · 324 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed G2 Ares | 67c | 413.06$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.59 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked G2 Ares | 40c | 405$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 244 | 47.1%115 W · 129 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Lilmix | 53c | 363.79$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.98 | 299 | 34.4%103 W · 196 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lilmix | 62c | 340.94$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.41 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Lilmix | 46c | 279.7$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.14 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Lilmix | 48c | 213.85$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…09b7backed G2 Ares | 45c | 196$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Lilmix | 61c | 181.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lilmix | 53c | 161.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787f…d40cbacked Lilmix | 33c | 160$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 279 | 40.5%113 W · 166 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…1db2backed Lilmix | 33c | 156$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Lilmix | 33c | 113.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed G2 Ares | 30c | 84.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…2cfbbacked Lilmix | 70c | 79.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…75a1backed Lilmix | 53c | 79.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 143 | 39.9%57 W · 86 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Lilmix | 63c | 78.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 590 | 49.7%293 W · 297 L | -31.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed Lilmix | 33c | 73.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Lilmix | 64c | 40.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed G2 Ares | 67c | 17.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 500 | 56.6%283 W · 217 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group ALilmix won
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 2 WinnerLilmix won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.