CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86ef052f4c438fa9b830d4628000871082a7477ffb03aa6edfa5bf6828036f30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lilmixof G2 Ares, Lilmix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f27…4fb3backed G2 Ares | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…6091backed Lilmix | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked G2 Ares | 70c | 1,068$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.76 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed G2 Ares | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed G2 Ares | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 215 | 0.9%2 W · 213 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Lilmix | 30c | 937.63$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.34 | 219 | 45.7%100 W · 119 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Lilmix | 51c | 838.97$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.48 | 211 | 46%97 W · 114 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97d…e699backed Lilmix | 45c | 498.6$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.77 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lilmix | 52c | 330.42$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.58 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed G2 Ares | 48c | 317.96$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.74 | 299 | 34.4%103 W · 196 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed G2 Ares | 48c | 287.61$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.12 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…6d99backed Lilmix | 45c | 260$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed G2 Ares | 69c | 237$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.53 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Lilmix | 31c | 227$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.63 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed G2 Ares | 49c | 211.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 476 | 41.6%198 W · 278 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked G2 Ares | 61c | 206.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 503 | 58.6%295 W · 208 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked G2 Ares | 46c | 195.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Lilmix | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed G2 Ares | 19c | 162.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Lilmix | 45c | 160$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed G2 Ares | 57c | 152.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 280 | 52.9%148 W · 132 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed G2 Ares | 71c | 151.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.45 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…dc10backed Lilmix | 60c | 149.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d1…a9f7backed G2 Ares | 48c | 138.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked G2 Ares | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 789 | 63.8%503 W · 286 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked G2 Ares | 52c | 125.87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed Lilmix | 44c | 125.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 167 | 20.4%34 W · 133 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…48dabacked G2 Ares | 72c | 123.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked G2 Ares | 27c | 99.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 432 | 37.7%163 W · 269 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…17aabacked Lilmix | 51c | 94.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Lilmix | 29c | 86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 388 | 35.8%139 W · 249 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Lilmix | 55c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed Lilmix | 45c | 52.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 331 | 46.5%154 W · 177 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…5e45backed Lilmix | 39c | 51.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…4976backed Lilmix | 45c | 41.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…348ebacked Lilmix | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…ee7abacked Lilmix | 58c | 35.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…44bbbacked Lilmix | 37c | 34.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffcf…fd3ebacked Lilmix | 79c | 32.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed G2 Ares | 57c | 31.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Lilmix | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed G2 Ares | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 500 | 56.6%283 W · 217 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed G2 Ares | 67c | 20.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…355fbacked Lilmix | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group ALilmix won
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 1 WinnerLilmix won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.