Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b3f567c5bdbc01400fcaf06f62a28f18a400ae27af834eec0be4edf20268fb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 26c | 285.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.77 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 49c | 250.83$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.08 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.72 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 55c | 174.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 162.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 148.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 123.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 119.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 116.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 101.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 28c | 100.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 52c | 96.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 65c | 94.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 25c | 79.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 73c | 54.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f44…f982backed Yes | 55c | 54.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 42c | 53.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…8fcabacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 62c | 48.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 23c | 46.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 36.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa748…5419backed Yes | 56c | 35.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 42c | 35.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 58c | 34.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 32.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 47c | 32.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 35c | 30.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…69adbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 70c | 28.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…565cbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 50c | 26.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…6957backed Yes | 45c | 24.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 68c | 24.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 70c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 57c | 21.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…5396backed Yes | 66c | 16.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.