Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b4dbe5ffa5e89224dce781afd40406a85ae1154d94bd7f37f2b508f09dac2f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 61c | 5,209$3,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031.53 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 39c | 2,596$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.45 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 26c | 2,190$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.42 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 75c | 1,533$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.13 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 74c | 1,250$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 74c | 1,250$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 28c | 572$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.16 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 73c | 572$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.82 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed No | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 68c | 518.21$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.1 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 23c | 504.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 36c | 414.31$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.66 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 5c | 240.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 71c | 176.26$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 73c | 161.21$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 28c | 127$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 15c | 118.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 25c | 109.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 36c | 103.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…19e9backed Yes | 38c | 102.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 63c | 100.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb812…2275backed Yes | 39c | 87.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 39c | 62.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 75c | 42.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?No won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-05-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.