Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cf9c25a4e5c164344b2f7b48d45ce7a2ab6802dad9e4f681093fe4e0791f9f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 40c | 25,001$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,000.51 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 60c | 10,775$6,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,464.71 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 60c | 3,289$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.24 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 68c | 3,149$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.36 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…b7e9backed No | 62c | 2,250$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 60c | 2,203$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.03 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,613$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.75 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,600$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.87 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 60c | 1,400$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 48c | 1,198$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.54 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 28c | 1,193$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.71 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 44c | 1,082$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.24 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 25c | 1,017$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 60c | 910.41$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.25 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 60c | 828.09$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.85 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 44c | 767.54$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.72 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Yes | 50c | 704.06$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.03 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 65c | 688$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.8 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 46c | 476.88$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.4 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 38c | 450$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 28c | 435.95$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.43 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 18c | 400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 67c | 368$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.56 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 40c | 366$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.6 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 62c | 343$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.52 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 19c | 204.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed No | 44c | 202.1$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 54c | 191.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.23 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 173.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed No | 44c | 113.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 46c | 104.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 61c | 100.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 75c | 99.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 42c | 95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 72c | 88.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 38c | 79.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…0dc3backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 35c | 70.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 39c | 68.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 23c | 60.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 76c | 58.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 38c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 55c | 43.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf8…4d13backed Yes | 48c | 39.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 60c | 37.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Yes | 43c | 29.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 68c | 24.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 53c | 20.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 60c | 20.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 60c | 17.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.