Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: VCU Rams (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b4ee07ff85708e7a865b7cd0d8ca0d2c298160a28707f598efcbe2540de5e13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VCU Ramsof VCU Rams, Dayton Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,194 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 7,702$3,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,851.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked VCU Rams | 50c | 3,154$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.93 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed VCU Rams | 53c | 2,171$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.85 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…fb90backed VCU Rams | 52c | 1,904$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.1 | 127 | 49.6%63 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Dayton Flyers | 48c | 1,511$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked VCU Rams | 50c | 1,148$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.35 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked VCU Rams | 52c | 416.14$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.24 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked VCU Rams | 53c | 272.28$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.97 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked VCU Rams | 56c | 265.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Dayton Flyers | 14c | 213.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Dayton Flyers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ed…cbbebacked Dayton Flyers | 51c | 136.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked VCU Rams | 56c | 132.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Dayton Flyers | 39c | 116$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed VCU Rams | 61c | 115.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Dayton Flyers | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked VCU Rams | 50c | 48.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0c…282cbacked VCU Rams | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed VCU Rams | 54c | 36.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Dayton Flyers | 46c | 36.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…996ebacked VCU Rams | 52c | 32.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Dayton Flyers | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked VCU Rams | 53c | 29.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed VCU Rams | 51c | 27.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Dayton Flyers | 50c | 26.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Dayton Flyers | 47c | 26.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed VCU Rams | 50c | 22.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: VCU Rams (-2.5)this page
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU RamsVCU Rams won
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 134.5Under won
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 136.5Under won
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 137.5Under won
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 138.5Under won
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 139.5Under won
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 140.5Under won
- Spread: VCU Rams (-11.5)Dayton Flyers won
- Spread: VCU Rams (-12.5)Dayton Flyers won
- Spread: VCU Rams (-3.5)VCU Rams won
- Spread: VCU Rams (-5.5)VCU Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.