Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 138.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d6c0bd431e3bc55906e2c41e968343a24dee4780ee951861dd6da2320ad9d8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 6,540$3,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,270.22 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 49c | 2,641$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.21 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Over | 53c | 1,870$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.28 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 504$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.12 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 51c | 447.04$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.05 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 50c | 395.42$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.71 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Over | 50c | 380.45$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.23 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 249$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.58 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 247.82$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…c3ffbacked Under | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Over | 50c | 110.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 51c | 103.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 50c | 66.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…2e70backed Over | 50c | 47.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 50c | 47.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 172 | 58.7%101 W · 71 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 51c | 39.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…eb78backed Over | 69c | 32.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…5ca7backed Under | 51c | 31.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Over | 54c | 29.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 138.5this page
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU RamsVCU Rams won
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 134.5Under won
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 136.5Under won
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 137.5Under won
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 139.5Under won
- Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 140.5Under won
- Spread: VCU Rams (-11.5)Dayton Flyers won
- Spread: VCU Rams (-12.5)Dayton Flyers won
- Spread: VCU Rams (-2.5)VCU Rams won
- Spread: VCU Rams (-3.5)VCU Rams won
- Spread: VCU Rams (-5.5)VCU Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.