Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b57dbab5223f0c595974260298f3190ed0fa15ef7aaac6d5bb207b2f94e6c80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,674$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.92 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 60c | 468.27$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.12 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 62c | 404.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 72c | 396.43$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 316.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.64 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 37c | 292.18$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 284.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.97 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 261.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 238.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 221.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 16c | 212.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.42 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 6c | 207.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 25c | 205.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 11c | 199.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 15c | 175.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.55 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 12c | 172.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.85 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 10c | 141.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 131.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 131.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 115.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 10c | 107.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 16c | 107.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.17 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 18c | 93.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 61c | 92.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 14c | 92.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…409cbacked Yes | 12c | 89.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +394.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 17c | 79.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 32c | 77.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 75.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 68c | 71.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 73c | 54.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 35c | 51.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 49c | 40.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 59c | 40.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes | 31c | 35.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…70f0backed Yes | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…da72backed Yes | 50c | 34.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…3817backed Yes | 66c | 29.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 25.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ced…574abacked No | 64c | 24.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3b…2c2ebacked Yes | 68c | 24.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…2d6fbacked No | 43c | 24.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…55c2backed No | 64c | 18.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 69c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 72c | 15.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.